Data-driven football forecasts

The numbers behind the next 90 minutes.

Statistical football forecasts built from probabilities, expected goals and match data — with the evidence behind every prediction.

129

Forecasts

33

Strong support

7 days

Window

Next seven days

Strongest signals first. Lower-confidence forecasts fill the remaining spots.

Showing 6 of 129 forecasts.

Strong support requires at least 50% outcome probability and 55/100 confidence. Limited support clears the probability floor but not the confidence threshold.

See all 129 forecasts

Figures are rounded for display. Every probability is a statistical estimate, not a promise about the result.

Two different signals

Probability ≠ confidence

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72%

Outcome probability

How likely the highlighted home win, draw, or away win is according to the model.

69 / 100

Model confidence

How strongly the available data and model conditions support that estimate. It is not another probability or a historical success rate.

A high outcome probability can still have modest confidence when the direction is clear but the supporting evidence is limited.

Past performance

How did our recent forecasts perform?

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Inspect the method

See how team strength, expected goals, Poisson, and Dixon–Coles form each forecast.

How it works

Review published results

Finished fixtures retain the forecast recorded before kickoff, so past performance stays inspectable.

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Read confidence correctly

Confidence describes the model's evidence and uncertainty. It does not replace the outcome probability.

What the numbers mean